21/08/2014
Report: Qatar market fluctuations in the short term
Gulf bourses confused except «Saudi Arabia»
Specialized report pointed out that the Saudi stock market index record up to over 9 per cent in the past month, pointing out that the Kingdom is experiencing a marked increase in mergers and acquisitions, the company announced its acquisition of safola ' top share shareholders ' Kuwait food company (Americana). ' The report by the Emirates NBD Bank, yesterday, the ' economic ' got copy, the geopolitical conflicts continue to dominate the global scene, particularly the lack of any positive development in the Gaza war, the conflict in Ukraine, and the continued fighting in Syria and Iraq, leading to increased levels of volatility and confusion in the Gulf share prices with the exception of the ' Saudi Arabia '. According to the report, the exclusion of small company shares ' mesaieed petrochemicals ' country ' index of Morgan Stanley Capital International's emerging markets on Monday, a surprise to analysts, that the market will face further volatility in the near term.
The food and retail sectors in Saudi Arabia for this year's performance, which grew more than 55 percent since the beginning of the year to exceed the forecast profit growth of 25 per cent and 17 per cent for 2014 and 2015 respectively. The report said that the country recorded a market up briefly last week on the back of expectations of increased weight of shares in index ' Morgan Stanley Capital International's emerging markets (by quarterly review for August), but the market decline at the present time. According to the report, the record of ' national ' Bank of Qatar and Qatar industries ' company ' up from the lows recorded in mid-2014 and more than 18 percent and 10 percent respectively, were also reported to increase their weight in the Morgan Stanley Capital International ' ' especially after their higher levels of foreign ownership.
Credit flows and balance, according to the report, contributed to the rush of investment safe havens by American Treasury bonds for ten years and recorded revenue of 2.34 percent after touching down at 2.30 per cent last Friday. Bond has made British and German 10-year yields to 16 and 10 basis points during the week, respectively, while the expanded price differences between the supply and demand for securities and credit in the GCC because of severe traffic in the standard interest rates in US dollars. On the other hand, the sovereign instruments to the Government of Ras al Khaimah, issued on 22 July 2014 worth 400 million US dollars and the rate of 8 per cent demand. Will be September next maturity bonds worth four billion dollars each from the National Bank of Abu Dhabi, and manufacturing and energy services ' (energy), and the Islamic Development Bank ', and the ' Ras Laffan company '. Also expected to reinvest in these revenues with current credit tightening in the Bay area, at a time when the cost of swaps credit deficit for five years in Dubai to 160 basic point.
And the renewed attention last week with the instruments ' Damak ' for five years after the company announced record earnings positive. And instruments company ' energy ' with some support after reports of asset sales and not to return to capital markets until 2017 at the earliest. Also saw slow versions, such as the instruments ' Dubai Government ' and a ' Emaar malls ', resurgence in demand after investors sought relative value in versions for seven to ten years, in turn, are the first two segments of the UAE more credit demand also.
Rising geopolitical tensions and slowing global economic growth, according to the report, remains a geopolitical conflicts dominate the world scene, notably the lack of any positive development in the Gaza war, the conflict in Ukraine, and the continued fighting in Syria and Iraq, leading to increased rates of volatility in stock prices in parallel with recording ' indicator of volatility in the market of Chicago (CBOE) standard heights. For global equity markets that had begun experiencing waves of strong sales last week, there was a kind of satisfaction after the Russian President a sudden conciliatory tone after the Russian companies began to feel the brunt of economic sanctions, with the ' oil ' Rosneft first Russian company resort to dial a Government rescue funds. The report said, 'as expected, the Japanese economy contracted 6.8 percent in the second quarter of the year on the back of reduced depreciation rates that were affected by higher sales taxes by 3 percent beginning April last.
But the German economy contracted by 0.2 per cent, while there was no change in the stalemate facing the French economy, the slowdown in Chinese Bank lending rates that is forcing it to fortify their budgets against any sudden rise in rates of non-performing loans. Investors have chosen to resort to the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, leading to the recovery of these currencies '. The Bank predicted that the source of the report, the superiority of the Japanese markets in the next phase thanks to higher stock allocations by Japanese pension fund with shares of generating high returns compared with Japanese Government bond yielding low. For Europe, we commit ourselves to neutral pending the return to normal business with Russia. In any case, we recommend caution in the markets in the short term pending the policy of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve and decline in current armed conflicts.
Preference shares with high returns for high bond yields, the report said, according to the consensus of analysts, was due to arrive in the US economy this year to stage the ' escape velocity ' for the first time since the global economic downturn in 2008 and 2009, or in other words, the US economy is approaching a point of growth that are able to provide self-sufficiency without motivational measures. And contribute to the global asset and performance analyses of recent economic data--including receding investor confidence in Germany and weak retail sales in the United States — in uncertainty over the strength of global growth despite opportunities ' escape velocity '.
Pharmaceutical sector is information technology performance indicator ' Morgan Stanley Capital International to global markets-global equity performance indicator – for a full year to date. The private and public sectors rely heavily on a new scientific innovations would allow them to expand easily and for long periods than GDP growth rates. Both sectors typically tend to record superior performance in the market, especially when there is difficulty in broad growth sectors associated directly with the business cycle. Although economic data look good apparently, but warns of high expansion rates so far. Note on inflation pressures faded in all the economies of developed countries such as USA, Europe, United Kingdom and Japan, thanks to slowing wage growth, which is itself further evidence of rampant economic growth in these countries.
According to the report, long-term bond yields continues-associated directly with long-term economic growth-pace performance dimmed as only American bond yields for 10-year 3 per cent since a long time, and the German bond yields close to 10 years of 1%, which is indicative of serious reminiscent of the Japanese crisis of the ' lost decade '. Either within environments with weak economic growth, the Bank thinks primarily that the best strategy is circumventing the low returns by investing in stocks with high returns that provide superior performance to compensate investors ' dividends and concentration the second class options offered by proprietary funds and equity funds.
In return, the Bank recommended that clients stay away from overly ambitious strategies and not studied adequately high bond yields, which has been until recently the preferred asset class to achieve returns, as does not imply imminent end to quantitative facilitation by the Federal Reserve Bank in October-along with the slight differences between the bid and ask for unwanted bonds, and capital flow towards the outside within this sector of the market-on continuity than bonds vs stocks. It said, ' it seems that Palladium has liberated from a level of us $ 890 an ounce; and if you continue to climb, we will reach new record levels.
